As attention begins to gear towards the 2024 F1 driver market, here is a look at the state of play at present as to who is heading where.
Various drivers are set to enter the second half of this season with uncertain futures as teams ponder their plans for next season, with the following four teams however have already confirmed their driver line-ups for next season.
| Team | Driver |
| Alpine | Pierre Gasly |
| Esteban Ocon | |
| Ferrari | Charles Leclerc |
| Carlos Sainz | |
| McLaren | Lando Norris |
| Oscar Piastri | |
| Red Bull | Sergio Perez |
| Max Verstappen |
Alfa Romeo, Aston Martin, Mercedes and Williams however have one of their two seats filled, whilst AlphaTauri and Haas have two vacant seats to fill next season so here is an in-depth look at their driver line-up situations heading into a crucial few months of the season.
Alfa Romeo
Valtteri Bottas is currently contracted to the team which is set to return to the Sauber brand name next season, following the conclusion of their partnership with Alfa Romeo at the end of 2023.
Guanyu Zhou though is out of contract at the end of this season but he has shown signs of progress in a disappointing campaign for the team, so you have to feel that he deserves a third season to showcase his talent.
Sauber junior, Theo Pourchaire on the other hand has proven that he is ready to step up to F1 after three seasons in F2, of which he currently leads the second-tier championship and if he can win the title then he deserves his chance to graduate into F1 next season with the team.
Simply put, I can’t see the second seat going to anyone other than Zhou or Pourchaire although a lot could hang on Pourchaire clinching the F2 title, otherwise Zhou will likely get another season in his seat.
Aston Martin
After an impressive first season with Aston Martin, Fernando Alonso will once again be on the grid in 2024 but there are serious questions around Lance Stroll’s position as his teammate.
Everyone knows that matching Alonso is no easy task for a teammate as Nelson Piquet J.r, Felipe Massa and Stoffel Vandoorne can testify over the years, but there is no hiding from the huge contrast in performance and consistency between the Spaniard and Stroll.
Aston Martin are also serious about moving up the grid and fighting for podiums plus possible wins and with Stroll underperforming, his father – Lawrence must cut the nepotism and move his son on in order to allow the team punch higher up the field more regularly.
Stroll’s record across the last six seasons also suggests that he lacks the quality to fight with the big teams regularly, although there is no doubting his talent which he showed brilliantly in Turkey in 2020 until bad luck cost him a maiden win.
Should Stroll indeed be released at the end of this season, you have to hope that Aston Martin will give Felipe Drugovich a full-time chance after the Brazilian impressed in pre-season and is closely involved with the team in his reserve role.
Aston Martin though do need to recruit more youngsters onto their young driver programme in order to build for the future, because if they don’t put Drugovich in the car then you have to wonder if they will seek to poach someone like Oscar Piastri or Alex Albon.
Mercedes
With George Russell already confirmed for a third season with the Silver Arrows, questions continue to surround Lewis Hamilton’s seat after two seasons of struggle under the new regulations.
There however is little doubt of how close Hamilton and Mercedes are so I do expect his contract renewal to be a formality, even if they opt to wait until the off-season like they did during the break between 2020 and 21 seasons and do a one-season deal with view on Mercedes’ potential title challenge.
Retirement however can’t be ruled out given Hamilton’s age but after taking pole in Hungary, it is hard to see Hamilton walking away because he is clearly still hungry for revenge and a record eighth title after the 2021 title debacle in Abu Dhabi.
Should the latter option unexpectedly materialise, I do fancy Mercedes to swoop for Lando Norris given his talent and experience with Frederik Vesti possibly going to McLaren either permanently or on loan as a part exchange.
Vesti however is in serious contention for the F2 title and if he can claw back the championship lead which he lost in Belgium, I do wonder if Mercedes might be tempted into a bold gamble and stick him in the car if Hamilton does retire.
Nevertheless, I do seriously expect Hamilton to renew his contract but if he does decide to leave, it will certainly open up the drivers market with Mercedes having plenty of young talent to choose from.
Williams
Albon is already confirmed for Williams next season but I wouldn’t be surprised if Logan Sargeant once again is his teammate next season, despite being outshone by the British-Thai driver this season because he clearly has shown potential at times in his rookie campaign.
Williams also seem willing to give rookies at least two seasons to impress and with Zak O’Sullivan and Franco Colapinto destined for F2 next season, James Vowles wouldn’t do any worse keeping Sargeant alongside Albon next season with O’Sullivan or Colapinto replacing him in 2025.
AlphaTauri
With both Yuki Tsunoda and Daniel Ricciardo out of contract at the end of this season, AlphaTauri have two vacant seats to fill ahead of next season.
Ricciardo feels like a seat filler designed to provide Tsunoda with competition to try and bring the best out of the Japanese youngster, so I do expect the eight-time F1 race winner to leave and Liam Lawson to come in after impressing in Super Formula this year.
Tsunoda meanwhile has talent but has lacked consistency to outdrive an uncompetitive car these past two seasons, so his future could boil down to how he performs in coming races because if he can fight for top-ten results then he will stay otherwise he will move on.
Should Tsunoda ultimately leave, Ayumu Iwasa has to be the ideal replacement given his form in F2 this season, although he too can be inconsistent at times so I do wonder if Iwasa will head to Super Formula and Tsunoda get a last chance saloon season in F1 next year alongside Lawson.
Haas
Having returned to an experienced driver line-up for this season who have done a solid job with little reward due to the uncompetitive race performance within their car, Haas probably will hand Nico Hulkenberg and Kevin Magnussen another chance to impress next season.
Considering that Zhou and Tsunoda realistically are the only other alternative drivers available unless willing to take a risk on another all rookie line-up, Haas might as well stick with Hulkenberg and Magnussen for consistency as long as next year’s car is more competitive.
Turning towards potential rookie candidates, only Ferrari junior, Oliver Bearman looks a plausible option as long as he finishes in the top five of F2’s driver standings, which would mean retaining Hulkenberg or Magnussen to partner him anyway as there aren’t many other rookies available.
Bearman however does look best-placed to stay in F2 and challenge for the title next season so my best bet would be on Haas retaining Hulkenberg and Magnussen, although they could do with creating with a long-term driver strategy for the future.
Leave a Reply