Who Will Secure Premier League Survival?

With nine teams fighting for Premier League survival, here is a look at how their run-ins could unfold in the race to stay up.

Just four points separate nine clubs with less than two months of the season left, meaning that there is the potential for the fight for survival to go to the wire for a second consecutive season.

I’ve therefore taken an in-depth look at the run-in for all nine teams with points predictions, as several rivals prepare to collide across the course of the next nine weeks, offering the opportunity for some surprise results and shock relegations.

Southampton, Bournemouth and West Ham start this run-in looking to avoid relegation come season’s end but the best place to start with is 12th-placed Crystal Palace, who are now back under the reins of Roy Hodgson.

 

Crystal Palace (27 points)

Opposition	Venue
Leicester	H
Leeds	A
Southampton	A
Everton	H
Wolves	A
West Ham	H
Tottenham	A
Bournemouth	H
Fulham	A
Nottingham Forest	H

Without a win in all competitions in 2023 and having sacked Patrick Vieira as manager a few weeks ago in favour of re-appointing Hodgson, Crystal Palace now need to halt their freefall if they’re to stay up because their run-in looks very strong.

Hodgson’s task will be boosted by the fact that their five remaining home matches are all winnable although I do expect them to lose at least one of those fixtures, so at least seven points has to be the achievable minimum expectation but I can see them claiming possibly 10 points ideally.

On the road, Palace though could find it much tougher because they’re mainly playing teams around them so a minimum of four points against Leeds, Southampton and Wolves is imperative, whilst at least one point at Tottenham or Fulham if not a win could help massively towards survival.

15 points therefore feels like a strongly achievable outcome for Palace but they must seize the initiative with their generous looking selection of home matches.

Points prediction: 15 points

 

Wolves (27 points)

Opposition	Venue
Nottingham Forest	A
Chelsea	H
Brentford	H
Leicester	A
Crystal Palace	H
Brighton	A
Aston Villa	H
Manchester United	A
Everton	H
Arsenal	A

Although not entirely safe, Wolves do have a quality manager in Unai Emery so survival has to be a strong ambition across the run-in.

I however do foresee a tricky start to their run-in because Forest away will be difficult so a draw might be a decent result, whilst Chelsea and Brentford do feel like they could have defeat written all over them which means patience could be needed for Wolves fans.

Once those three games are completed, Wolves have to maximise their points return in the following six games, although they particularly have to snatch at least three wins and possibly one or two draws just to be sure because they face an impossible looking final-day visit to Arsenal.

It is therefore imperative that Wolves must scrape together a minimum of 11 points from their run-in to give themselves hope, as long as others continue to stumble below them.

Points prediction: 11 points

 

Leeds (26 points)

Opposition	Venue
Arsenal	A
Nottingham Forest	H
Crystal Palace	H
Liverpool	H
Fulham	A
Leicester	H
Bournemouth	A
Manchester City	A
Newcastle	H
West Ham	A
Tottenham	H

With Javi Gracia’s experience in a Premier League relegation dogfight, Leeds can enter this run-in with belief of surviving the drop if they can sort out their defensive fragilities.

Their away fixtures though do initially look more challenging because I can’t see them getting anything at Arsenal or Man City, whilst Fulham looks an unlikely positive result meaning that they must get some points away to Bournemouth and West Ham if want anything from their travels.

Leeds’ remaining home fixtures however don’t look better on paper but I do feel they’ve to get at least six points against Forest, Palace and Leicester, whilst a point against Newcastle would be a fair result and Tottenham do look beatable on the final day given Spurs’ away inconsistencies.

13 points therefore does look like a fairly achievable return across the run-in but there isn’t much margin for Leeds to go on losing runs, except against title contenders – Arsenal and Man City.

Points prediction: 13 points

 

Everton (26 points)

Opposition	Venue
Tottenham	H
Manchester United	A
Fulham	H
Crystal Palace	A
Newcastle	H
Leicester	A
Brighton	A
Manchester City	H
Wolves	A
Bournemouth	H

For a second consecutive season, Everton find themselves stuck in a scrap for survival but this time have a Premier League survival specialist in Sean Dyche at the helm.

Their run of home games however does look quite tricky on paper but with home fans capable of creating a daunting atmosphere, I do fancy them to target wins against Fulham and Bournemouth whilst a draw against one of Tottenham or Newcastle do look possible.

Getting anything against Man City meanwhile looks a difficult task unless they can replicate their smash-and-grab draw from earlier this season, which I think will be unlikely if City are firmly right in the title race at that point.

A return of seven points from their five remaining matches at Goodison Park this season therefore looks like a solid target.

Dyche’s Toffees therefore realistically need to turn their away fortunes around if want to stay up although I don’t see them getting anything at Man Utd, whilst a draw away to Brighton would be a fair result if they can stop the Seagulls’ powerful attacking play aside of their poor away form this season.

On that note, Everton realistically need to avoid defeat at Palace, Leicester and Wolves if want to stay up but those three clubs also are in a fight for survival, so seven points from those three games are critical otherwise it is hard to see them staying up.

Points prediction: 14 points

 

Nottingham Forest (26 points)

Opposition	Venue
Wolves	H
Leeds	A
Aston Villa	A
Manchester United	H
Liverpool	A
Brighton	H
Brentford	A
Southampton	H
Chelsea	A
Arsenal	H
Crystal Palace	A

Although their position does look percarious given their injury crisis, Forest should believe in themselves that survival is possible if can avoid having a deeper injury pile-up.

Steve Cooper’s men also should be buoyant by their strong goalscoring ability at home because their home games are all winnable, even against Man Utd who have two legs of their Europa League Quarter-Final either side of their trip to Forest.

Arsenal though do feel like a potential sticking point but Forest have already beaten the Gunners at home during Mikel Arteta’s reign albeit in FA Cup, although I expect them to mount a serious fight because they are capable of at least seven points from their remaining home games.

Away trips to Liverpool and Chelsea though do look very difficult but if they can beat Leeds, Villa and Palace plus possibly collect a point at Brentford, I can foresee a solid haul of points in this run-in.

Points prediction: 17 points

 

Leicester (25 points)

Opposition	Venue
Crystal Palace	A
Aston Villa	H
Bournemouth	H
Manchester City	A
Wolves	H
Leeds	A
Everton	H
Fulham	A
Liverpool	H
Newcastle	A
West Ham	H

With just one of the current top-four clubs to face during the run-in, Leicester on paper really do look like they’re in for a favourable climax to the season but I do expect it to be quite tougher than many might think.

In fact looking at their run-in, Leicester should be happy with their remaining home games because they should beat Bournemouth and Wolves, whilst avoiding defeat their clashes against Villa, Everton and West Ham looks crucial but I just can’t see them beating Liverpool unless at their best.

Their away run also looks decent aside from likely defeats at Man City and Newcastle unless can snatch a draw, because they really should be targeting at least four points against Palace, Leeds and Fulham.

Defence though seems to be Leicester’s biggest issue but 15 points has to be a realistic minimal aim in terms of points.

Points prediction: 15 points

 

West Ham (24 points)

Opposition	Venue
Southampton	H
Newcastle	H
Fulham	A
Arsenal	H
Bournemouth	A
Liverpool	H
Crystal Palace	A
Manchester City	A
Manchester United	H
Brentford	A
Leeds	H
Leicester	A

As fantastic as West Ham’s European antics have been this season, they now must start knuckling down domestically if want to stay up even though they have two games in hand on several rivals.

Looking at their home fixtures, I really can’t see David Moyes’ Hammers beating Arsenal, Liverpool nor Man Utd, meaning that they must make home advantage count against Southampton, Newcastle and Leeds which will be a huge ask but I would expect them to beat Southampton and Leeds.

Six points from home therefore has to be a minimum target, whilst nicking at least two points from their four other home matches would be a solid boost.

Away from home, I would write the trip to Man City off in terms of points potential but with Fulham and Brentford both battling for European qualification, at least one point from either game would be helpful.

Moyes’ Hammers though have to target at least six points from visits to Bournemouth, Palace and Leicester, which does feel like a tricky ask given that those three teams are also fighting for survival, yet seven points at minumum has to be a fair target on the road.

Much of their run-in though could hinge upon how seriously they can balance their domestic commitments with their UEFA Europa Conference League title ambitions.

Points prediction: 15 points

 

Bournemouth (24 points)

Opposition	Venue
Fulham	H
Brighton	H
Leicester	A
Tottenham	A
West Ham	H
Southampton	A
Leeds	H
Chelsea	H
Crystal Palace	A
Manchester United	H
Everton	A

With a decent looking run-in, Bournemouth should believe that they are capable of avoiding an instant relegation back to the Championship.

Looking at their home fixtures, only Man Utd feel like a write off but with Fulham, Brighton and Chelsea scrapping for European spots, a return haul of four points at minimum from those three games would be a positive achievement.

Bournemouth therefore must target maximum points from their home clashes against West Ham and Leeds realistically to boost their survival hopes, which would mean targeting circa ten points from their remaining six home games of the season.

On the road, Bournemouth probably would need to replicate their performance against Arsenal but this time away at Tottenham – minus the second-half defensive collapse – if want any points in North London.

The Cherries otherwise have some crucial away games against Leicester, Southampton, Palace and Everton, where they should target seven points at minimum if want to stay up.

A return of 17 points therefore does feel achievable if Bournemouth can cut out their defensive errors and really give this run-in their maximum performance.

Points prediction: 17 points

 

Southampton (23 points)

Opposition	Venue
West Ham	A
Manchester City	H
Crystal Palace	H
Arsenal	A
Bournemouth	H
Newcastle	A
Nottingham Forest	A
Fulham	H
Brighton	A
Liverpool	H

Despite sitting rock-bottom, Southampton can be comforted by the fact that only four points separate them and 12th placed Crystal Palace but they have to start delivering results if want to stay up.

Their remaining away games though do look the more decisive because their trips to West Ham and Nottingham Forest do feel like absolute must-wins, as I do struggle to see them getting anything other than possibly one point at maximum from visits to Arsenal, Newcastle or Brighton.

With that in mind, I do feel like they should target at least seven points from their remaining away fixtures, strictly as long as they beat both West Ham and Forest and get a draw elsewhere.

Across their five remaining matches at home, I do think they can write off Liverpool but they must target at least two wins against Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Fulham, whilst they know that City can be beaten at home but if City are at full strength then I can’t see them causing another shock.

On that note, if they lose against City then they must win their next three home matches plus look to claim at least seven points on the road in order to given themselves a respectable shot at survival.

Points prediction: 16 points.

 

Tight Climax

Now if we add those points predictions to the current points total of each of the nine teams, there would be a five-point gap between Forest who improve to 12th and rock-bottom Wolves, who would be relegated to the Championship with 38 points.

Southampton and West Ham meanwhile would also be down on goal difference after finding themselves level on 39 points with Leeds, whilst Everton and Leicester would stay up by the skin of their teeth by a single point.

Palace and Bournemouth meanwhile would sit in 13th and 14th positions with three-point and two-point margins to the relegation zone.

Position	Club	Points
12	Forest	43
13	Crystal Palace	42
14	Bournemouth	41
15	Everton	40
16	Leicester	40
17	Leeds	39
18	West Ham	39
19	Southampton	39
20	Wolves	38