Who Will Seal Promotion To Premier League?

(Image credit: Sheffield United)

With attention on the race for the second automatic promotion spot in the race for Premier League football, here is a look at the run-ins of five main contenders.

Whilst Burnley sit on the cusp of automatic promotion from Championship to Premier League, there is a competitive battle for the second automatic promotion spot involving five clubs realistically at minimum.

Sheffield United currently hold that second promotion spot but with Middlesbrough, Luton, Blackburn and Millwall breathing down their necks, this run-in promises to deliver high drama in a league where twists and turns are never too far away.

Now, here is a look at how the run-in for each of the five clubs are looking with Sheffield Utd and Blackburn holding the advantage of having games in hand upon their rivals.

 

Sheffield Utd (70 points)

Opposition Venue
Norwich A
Wigan H
Burnley A
Cardiff H
Bristol City H
West Brom H
Preston H
Huddersfield A
Birmingham City A

Sat in the prime seat with 70 points, Sheffield United have their fate in their own hands but they do have tricky trips to Norwich and Burnley early in the run-in, sandwiched by what should be a comfortable home win over Wigan so a return of four points early on could be vital.

Now if Paul Heckingbottom’s Blades can indeed manage four points at minimum from their first three games, I can see them comfortably winning at least two of their following four home matches yet their home records against Cardiff and Bristol City aren’t exactly strong.

On that note, I do expect at least one slip-up during those four home games – especially as the Bristol City game falls in the midweek prior to their FA Cup semi-final against Man City, which increases the possibility of a cupset if Heckingbottom opts to rest key players.

Finishing with away trips to relegation battling Huddersfield then Birmingham City meanwhile will bring its own challenges – especially the former as a Yorkshire derby if Huddersfield need a win to take their fight for survival to the final day.

In summary, I do expect Sheffield Utd to do well but I can see them dropping some points against any of Norwich, Bristol City, West Brom and Huddersfield if fitness and squad rotation size play a part, so a return of 14 points feel like a fair guess.

Should the Blades however win all of their four home games then promotion certainly should be assured but there will be some twists somewhere, especially once throw a FA Cup semi-final in-between Bristol City and West Brom fixtures into the equation.

Prediction: 14 points

 

Middlesbrough (67 points)

Opposition Venue
Huddersfield A
Burnley H
Bristol City A
Norwich H
Hull H
Luton A
Rotherham A
Coventry H

Currently three points behind the Blades with one more game played, Middlesbrough really can’t afford to slip up but the start of their run-in does look solid because they should beat Huddersfield and Bristol City, yet their home games against Burnley, Norwich and Hull could be crucial.

I though do feel like they can get at least eight points from those five games which would make their trip to Luton make-or-break, given that both teams could enter that match needing a win to move forward as the prime challengers to Sheffield Utd.

Should Boro indeed win that visit to Kenilworth Road then I do fancy them to go and beat Rotherham and Coventry, although their fate could depend upon how Sheffield Utd fare elsewhere – especially because the Blades will have two games in hand after Boro’s trip to Luton.

In terms of points across their run-in, I do think Boro could amass at least 16 points if they beat Huddersfield, Bristol City, Hull, Rotherham and Coventry and snatch draws against one of Burnley, Norwich and Luton.

Prediction: 16 points

 

Luton (64 points)

Opposition Venue
Watford H
Millwall A
Blackpool H
Rotherham A
Reading A
Middlesbrough H
Blackburn A
Hull H

Their recent draw at Sunderland was the last thing that Luton needed because they now sit six points behind Heckingbottom’s Blades, and their first two games of the run-in do look tricky.

Four points at minimum coupled with slip-ups for Sheffield Utd and Middlesbrough however could put Luton right back in the promotion hunt, which is something which I believe is achievable against Watford and Millwall if results elsewhere swing in their favour.

After those two fixtures, Luton should look to kick on because they’re capable of maximum points against Blackpool, Rotherham and Reading, although Middlesbrough and Blackburn will be tricky opposition to navigate if want to take the promotion fight to the final day.

Should Rob Edwards’ Hatters indeed have automatic promotion to play for on the final day then I fancy them to beat Hull, otherwise it could be a game which goes either way if Hull turn up with one of their better performances.

A return haul of 13 points at minimum therefore does seem achievable but Luton will need luck on their side if want to go up automatically.

Prediction: 13 points

 

Blackburn Rovers (61 points)

Opposition Venue
Birmingham City A
Norwich H
Huddersfield A
Hull H
Coventry H
Preston A
Burnley H
Luton H
Millwall A

Sat nine points off the Blades who defeated them in the FA Cup Quarter-Finals, Blackburn know that they have it all to do if want to snatch that second automatic promotion spot.

Their final three games though do look very slippy so it is imperative that they take as many points as they can from their six coming fixtures, yet I do feel like Birmingham and Norwich could take points off them so a return of at least 12 points will be imperative.

One defeat across those six games and I think Rovers will need to prepare for a play-off battle because I can’t see them beating promotion-elect Burnley at home, whilst Luton and Millwall could have enough in them to snatch draws if not wins over Blackburn.

Prediction: 11 points

 

Millwall (60 points)

Opposition Venue
West Brom A
Luton H
Hull A
Preston H
Birmingham City H
Wigan A
Blackpool A
Blackburn H

Currently sat ten points adrift of the second automatic promotion spot having played one game more than Sheffield Utd, Millwall have to hit the ground running in their run-in because anything less than victory against West Brom and Luton would ruin any hopes of going up automatically.

Should Gary Rowett’s Lions however come through those two games with at least four points, they do have a favourable run of games where they should target maximum points

I though do feel that Millwall’s promotion hopes will be over by the penultimate weekend if teams above them haven’t imploded, but their final day clash at home to Blackburn could be pivotal if the Lions find themselves scrapping for the last play-off spot.

Either way, I do feel like Millwall could have enough in them to secure a play-off spot at minimum but it will be their run of games in April which will be key, because if can take avoid defeat across April then they could be right in the promotion mix on the final day if extremely lucky.

Prediction: 12 points

 

Blades Would Go Up Automatically

Once add the forecast points predictions to the current table, Sheffield Utd would still retain second and go up automatically, albeit by a single point from Boro who would be joined in the play-offs by Luton, Blackburn and Millwall.

Position Team Points
2 Sheffield Utd 84
3 Middlesbrough 83
4 Luton 77
5 Blackburn 72
6 Millwall 72

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