With several drivers out of contract at end of 2022 Formula One season, here is a look at how the grid could appear next season.
Only nine drivers currently know their future beyond this season which means that there are 11 seats up for grabs for 2023.
I have therefore taken a look at how each team is shaping up heading into 2023 in terms of their driver line-ups and where we could see changes being rung by Team Principals.
Mercedes
With Lewis Hamilton confirmed at Mercedes on a two-season contract amidst speculation over his immediate future, I can see him sticking around until end of 2023 to chase an eighth title at minimum.
If he was to get that historic eighth F1 crown this season though, I wouldn’t be surprised if he considers retirement but there is temptation of chasing one final title, even if he treated 2023 as a farewell season and instead focused on helping George Russell chase a maiden title.
Should he choose retirement though, that does open up Pandora’s box in terms of his successor because Pierre Gasly and Lando Norris spring to mind, unless their own junior – Frederik Vesti was to graduate to F2 this season and go dominate the championship.
Failing that, Nyck De Vries surely would have to be a decent punt if he was to win a second consecutive Formula E title for Mercedes, so there would be a lot of head scratching to do at Brackley for Team Principal – Toto Wolff.
I though am plumping for an unchanged line-up because unless Hamilton wins an eighth title and decides to retire on a high, I can’t see him stepping away calmly especially in light of the dodgy actions of FIA Race Director – Michael Masi last season.
Russell meanwhile has moved from Williams on a long-term contract so I am expecting Mercedes to be patient and continue to support him especially if he struggles this year, even if means playing the long game to prepare him as Hamilton’s successor for continuity purposes.
Prediction: Lewis Hamilton and George Russell
Red Bull/AlphaTauri
Max Verstappen is confirmed at Red Bull until end of 2023 season but 2022 sees Red Bull take over Honda’s power units following the Japanese supplier’s exit, so this season could be of intrigue for Verstappen’s future because he could easily be tempted away a year early.
All it takes though is for Red Bull to struggle badly with their own power units and for Hamilton to win the title plus retire, then the door is open for Verstappen to be tempted by a move to Mercedes if the German constructor comes knocking.
Should the worst case scenario happen then I wouldn’t be surprised if Red Bull kept Perez for continuity and promoted one of Pierre Gasly or Yuki Tsunoda, depending on who has the better campaign this year although Gasly’s 2019 stint could count against him.
On the other hand if Verstappen stays, I can see Perez potentially moving on with Tsunoda promoted to Red Bull which would free up AlphaTauri for two of the following junior drivers;
- Jehan Daruvala
- Dennis Hauger
- Liam Lawson
- Ayumu Iwasa
- Juri Vips
Iwasa and Hauger though are the most unlikeliest candidates out of that quartet given that they are rookies in F2 with DAMS and PREMA respectively unless they enjoy stunning campaigns, whereas Daruvala probably needs to win the F2 title in his third season in the series to stand any chance.
Lawson and Vips meanwhile are firmly embedded within Red Bull’s F1 fold after participating in 2021 post-season test for AlphaTauri and Red Bull respectively, so would likely be viewed as firm favourites for the seats if excel in F2 this season.
Gasly meanwhile probably is ready for a new adventure outside of the Red Bull nest despite having a contract for 2023 so I can see him potentially moving on, yet staying within F1 next season because there surely will be some solid midfield seats available elsewhere.
On that note, I am going to predict Verstappen and Tsunoda at Red Bull unless Gasly proves that he is ready to handle the pressure again, whilst Vips and Lawson look red-hot favourites to head to AlphaTauri unless Hauger or Daruvala do enough in F2 this season.
Gasly however should look to move on because he has spent several years within the set-up and him leaving would breath new blood into AlphaTauri, whilst easing concerns about the crowded junior roster chasing a seat at Red Bull.
Predictions:
Red Bull – Max Verstappen and Yuki Tsunoda
AlphaTauri – Liam Lawson and Juri Vips
Ferrari
Charles Leclerc is guaranteed to remain with Ferrari unless Mercedes comes calling with a quality offer for the Monegasque, having signed a new five-year deal with Ferrari in late 2019 which runs until end of 2024 season.
As for Carlos Sainz, his contract runs out at end of this season but after outscoring Leclerc by 5.5 points in his first season for the Scuderia, it is difficult to not foresee Sainz staying on as Leclerc’s teammate for next season if he enjoys another strong campaign.
I therefore feel like driver contract negotiations at Maranello with Sainz will be a simple formality and provides stability for the next two seasons as F1 enters a new era.
Prediction: Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz
McLaren
Lando Norris is already assured of a drive beyond this season with McLaren after agreeing a contract extension in May 2021, so I don’t see him getting tempted away unless Mercedes comes knocking for his seat.
As for Daniel Ricciardo, he is contracted for next season but needs a stronger season if he is to keep his seat and if he doesn’t adapt well to the new regulations, I wouldn’t be surprised if he called it quits especially with McLaren now involved in IndyCar.
If Ricciardo indeed was to step down from F1 at end of season, McLaren could easily do a straight swap if Ricciardo wants to do IndyCar and move Pato O’Ward across to F1 with Ricciardo taking the Mexican’s IndyCar seat.
Pressure though would be on O’Ward this season Stateside to prove that he isn’t a fluke and mount another title challenge, in order to justify McLaren’s hype around the Mexican alongside any switch to F1.
If O’Ward isn’t an option then McLaren might well need to scout around their F1 rivals with Gasly a decent bet, given his recent form and unlikeliness of returning to Red Bull.
I though am going to punt on a Norris and O’Ward driver line-up next season given the easy logistics of a move for the latter, which would also bring extra attention to their IndyCar team as a potential feeder route to F1.
Prediction: Lando Norris and Pato O’Ward
Alpine
With Esteban Ocon assured of a seat at Alpine following his contract extension until end of 2024 season, there is definitely just one seat up for grabs at present.
At minute, Fernando Alonso looks favourite to retain his seat after a positive return last season but 2022 sees all-new regulations, which could well see Alonso struggle if he is unable to adapt to the new car throughout the campaign.
If that happens then his replacement would be a foregone conclusion without need to even speculate an inch, with Alpine junior – Oscar Piastri a worthy successor if Alonso retires given that the Australian is spending this season as Reserve Driver.
Should Alonso however enjoy the new car and want to renew his contract then it is difficult to see Alpine breaking up their current driver partnership just to accommodate Piastri, unless relations sour between the two-time champion and Ocon which seems unlikely based on last season.
Prediction: Esteban Ocon and Fernando Alonso
Aston Martin
With Sebastian Vettel set to be out of contract at end of this season and Lance Stroll’s contract length unclear, 2023 could well see all change at Aston Martin if the team fancies a driver refresh.
Starting with Lance, his father – Lawrence Stroll is Chairman of Aston Martin so I definitely can see him staying as long as Lawrence is in charge, unless he endures a difficult 2022 season and Lawrence can be convinced to drop him for someone like Gasly.
Vettel meanwhile is in the twilight years of his F1 career and much of his future probably will depend on how competitive the car is this season, which makes me think that he could well move on if he isn’t fighting for wins.
In that instant, Gasly could replace Vettel if Stroll stays at the team in a solid driver pairing of drivers in the prime years of their career, which would be interesting to watch if the team became more competitive next season.
Should the unexpected happen and Aston Martin opted for an all-new driver line-up then perhaps it could be worth monitoring Ferrari junior – Ollie Bearman who is one of the red hot favourites for the F3 title this season.
One issue concerning Bearman though is that he wouldn’t meet the F1 entry limit of 18 years-old until May 2023, unless FIA gave Aston Martin an exception and is part of Ferrari Academy whereas Aston Martin are supplied by Mercedes power.
In all seriousness though, I definitely do see Stroll staying but unless this season’s Aston Martin is fighting for podiums, I can see Vettel retiring and Gasly replacing him.
Prediction: Lance Stroll and Pierre Gasly
Williams
With Nicholas Latifi’s contract set to run out this season and Alex Albon only joining on a season-long loan from Red Bull, there wouldn’t be any surprises if we see changes at Williams next season.
The obvious place to start is within their Driver Academy with Logan Sargeant looking a great bet if he enjoys a stunning rookie season with Carlin in F2, otherwise I can see Latifi staying if he enjoys another solid season just to appease the owners’ North American fan base.
Should Sargeant indeed impress and graduates to F1 with Williams next season then from a financial perspective, Albon could well be retained if Red Bull don’t have any plans for him which doesn’t seem the case given their current driver roster.
On that note, I feel like Sargeant could be the key player in Williams’ driver plans for next season because if he does well in F2, I can see him making the step up and partnering Albon because I just can’t see him re-joining Red Bull in 2023.
Prediction: Logan Sargeant and Alex Albon
Alfa Romeo
With Valtteri Bottas confirmed for next season on a ‘multi-year’ contract, the big question at Alfa Romeo concerns who will be his teammate next season.
Guanyu Zhou has a one-year contract for 2022 but if he does well and justifies a contract renewal, then he would of earned it on merit which would then create a tricky situation for Alfa junior – Theo Pourchaire who seems destined for that seat next season.
Pourchaire though is currently only 18 years-old and set to enter his second season of F2 this year where he is favourite for the title, so should he win the series and Zhou retains his seat then Pourchaire could find himself in a Reserve role like Piastri is in at Alpine this season.
Given Pourchaire’s young age though, that might well not be a bad thing in the long run and enables him to acclimatise more to the F1 environment, yet would run the risk of his development stalling by the time he steps into a race seat as is a concern over Piastri at present.
Either way, Alfa could have a headache if Pourchaire proves that he deserves a race seat in 2023 and Zhou is able to match if not outperform Bottas, which could mean sponsorship playing a part and Zhou would comfortably win on a financial basis.
Prediction: Valtteri Bottas and Guanyu Zhou
Haas
With Nikita Mazepin and Mick Schumacher set to be out of contract come November 2022, it could be all change down at Haas with the team needing a strong season after placing all development focus on this year’s car.
Schumacher though should be the safest bet to stay at Haas next season because I don’t see Ferrari having room for him if Sainz extends his contract, unless Leclerc moved elsewhere which would open up a seat for the German if he impresses this season.
As for Mazepin, his financial backing coupled with Haas’ focus on this season rather than 2021 has seen him retain his seat but he needs to improve his performances if he is to keep his drive again.
I however don’t foresee that happening unless there is a marked improvement on last season and wouldn’t be surprised if Haas take on another Ferrari junior in Callum Ilott, with the Brit currently on a gap-year from the Academy competing in IndyCar where he needs a solid season.
Should that materialise then I wouldn’t be surprised if Ilott is placed at Haas alongside Schumacher, otherwise I would tip Robert Shwartzman for the seat given his talent and would provide stability given that Schumacher and Shwartzman were teammates in F2.
I though am ultimately going to plump for a Schumacher and Ilott pairing at Haas because it is hard to see where else Schumacher could go, whilst Ilott deserves his chance in F1 after patiently moving sideways to GT and IndyCar across 2021/22 seasons.
Prediction: Mick Schumacher and Callum Ilott
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