Who will Triumph In Six-Way Promotion to League One Scrap?

With six teams scrapping for promotion to League One, here is a look at a dramatic run-in as the battle looks set to go to the wire in the final month of the League Two season.

Sat top of the table with a five-point advantage over second-placed MK Dons and third-placed Notts County a further point behind, Bromley have promotion in their own hands across the run-in, whilst four points separate the Dons, Notts County, Cambridge, Swindon and Salford between second and sixth respectively for the three automatic promotion spots.

The final month of the campaign therefore promises to be tense and twisty with potential for surprise results, especially with many of the top six set to encounter those fighting for a play-off spot or EFL survival, so here is a look at the run-ins for each of the top six clubs.

 

Bromley (79 Points)

Team	Venue
Barnet	A
Shrewsbury	H
MK Dons	A
Cambridge	H
Salford	A
Walsall	H

With 83-85 points considered by many analysts and fans to be the minimum range for automatic promotion, Bromley certainly have their fate in their own hands but will have to do it without top goalscorer, Michael Cheek if reports of a season-ending hamstring injury are true.

Their run-in though is tough with only their home clash against Shrewsbury looking a realistically guaranteed three points on paper, but they’re yet to lose at home this season so I can see them grinding out a draw against Cambridge then the Walsall result depends on if they need points or are already promoted.

Should it be a case of the latter and Walsall needing a win to snatch the last play-off spot, I would fancy the Saddlers to deny Bromley an unbeaten home league record on the final day, but four points from their remaining three matches at home has to be an ideal target.

As for their remaining away games, Bromley do have a decent London derby record in terms of their EFL league matches so it is imperative that they bounce back with a win at Barnet, as that followed up with a home win over Shrewsbury will give them a bit of breathing space.

My instinct is that there will be at least one slip up away at either MK Dons or Salford and perhaps a draw in the other trip, but if they can grind out at least four points from those away matches then a minimum of eight points overall is achievable in the run-in and enough for promotion.

Prediction – 8 points

 

MK Dons (74 Points)

Team	Venue
Barrow	H
Oldham	A
Bromley	H
Crewe Alexandra	A
Tranmere	H
Fleetwood	A

.On first glance at MK Dons’ run-in, my initial thought is that it is tough because every team aside from Fleetwood have something to fight for across the table so they will have to be at their very best if are to not suffer a late-season slip into the play-off spots.

I however do think that they should on paper beat Barrow and Tranmere at home, whilst I can see them picking up a draw against Bromley so seven points at home ideally has to be their target.

In terms of their last three away matches, Oldham and Crewe are both fighting for a play-off spot so I can see a defeat coming in one of those games whilst a point at minimum in the other trip is achievable but they should beat Fleetwood on the final day so four points would be a fair aim on the road.

A return of 11 points from this run-in therefore would be a decent haul and surely enough for promotion.

Prediction – 11 points

 

Notts County (73 Points)

Team	Venue
Salford	A
Newport County	H
Cambridge	A
Barnet	H
Colchester	A
Bristol Rovers	H

Currently holding the last automatic promotion spot in their own hands, Notts County immediately face a promotion six-pointer away at Salford where defeat coupled with a draw between Cambridge and Swindon would certainly set up an even more tense scrap.

County though are the current joint second-best in-form side within the top six alongside MK Dons but just behind Salford so that clash is season-defining realistically, especially with tricky away trips to Cambridge and Colchester to come so I think four points has to be a fair target on the road for them.

At home, I can see them getting a comfortable six points against Newport and Bristol Rovers on current form but Barnet are scrapping for a play-off spot, which makes it a tough one to call after the Bees recently stung MK Dons and Cambridge to show that they can’t be underestimated.

A draw therefore has to be the minimum aim in that match in my opinion as 11 points overall has to be a solid target in this run-in, although they might need Cambridge to slip up if are to snatch that last automatic promotion spot.

Prediction – 11 points

 

Cambridge United (72 Points)

Team	Venue
Swindon	H
Cheltenham	A
Notts County	H
Bromley	A
Grimsby	H
Barrow	H
Crewe Alexandra	A

With a game in hand, you have to think that automatic promotion is Cambridge’s to lose but their run-in nevertheless is definitely a tough challenge.

Looking at that list of games, only Cheltenham looks the most winnable out of their three away matches as Bromley and Crewe won’t be easy given that they’re in automatic promotion and play-off mix respectively, so a return of four points at minimum has to be the aim on the road.

Cambridge however are lucky that their extra game is at home against Grimsby but if they fail to win their home games against Swindon and Notts County, they will have to beat Grimsby and Barrow realistically to give themselves a decent shot at automatic promotion if others slip up.

I however do see them slipping up at home with two draws out of their clashes against Swindon, Notts County and Grimsby, so five points feels like the minimal aim on their own turf in this run-in.

Once add those two sets of target points then nine points feels like a fair guess but given that they’re in a six-way promotion scrap, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Us exceed that prediction if they can build momentum.

Prediction – 9 points

 

Swindon Town (70 Points)

Team	Venue
Cambridge	A
Walsall	H
Colchester	A
Accrington Stanley	H
Grimsby	A
Chesterfield	H

Sat only four points off the last automatic promotion spot, Swindon realistically need to beat Cambridge given that those two meet before the rest of the top six kick off their run-ins, as only Colchester looks winnable out of their last three away trips of the campaign.

I however do think that Swindon will be capable of drawing at both Cambridge and Grimsby, so five points from their last three on the road sounds like a decent call.

At home, my thought is that the Accrington Stanley match is certainly winnable but I can see them drawing against a revived Walsall after the Saddlers’ mid-season dip, yet their clash against Chesterfield depends on if the Spireites are still in play-off mix on the final day.

If they indeed are and Swindon have a shot at automatic promotion, I fancy them to both draw but if not then Swindon realistically should win that game, which would give them seven points at home rather than five.

A target of 10-12 points therefore feels like a solid target for Swindon but they will need others to slip up if want automatic promotion.

Prediction – 10 points

 

Salford City (70 Points)

Team	Venue
Notts County	H
Crewe Alexandra	A
Gillingham	H
Oldham	A
Bromley	H
Crawley	A

Like Swindon, Salford realistically need to win their first game of the run-in to give themselves the best possible chance at automatic promotion, yet they’re coming up against another in-form rival in Notts County so a win there will be crucial from a psychological standpoint.

A draw though would mean that they ideally need to win their remaining matches to stand any chance of going up automatically, but trips to Crewe and Oldham won’t be easy whilst Crawley could need to win on the final day to stay up so four points on the road has to be the minimum aim.

At home, I fancy them to comfortably beat Gillingham but their last home match of the season against Bromley could go either way depending on the table at that point, meaning that the shape of Salford’s run-in pretty much hinges on that Good Friday showdown against Notts County.

My instinct though is that the clashes against Notts County and Bromley at time of writing will end in draws, meaning that five points at home is probably a fair guess although they’re probably destined for the play-offs realistically.

Defeat to Notts County however would mean that it is about consolidating that play-off spot given their eight-point advantage over eighth-placed Grimsby, and they might be wise to rest players once assured of a play-off spot ready for a tilt via that route like Sunderland did in the Championship last season.

Prediction – 9 points

 

Close Finish

If hypothetically apply the above points predictions to the current standings, it would finish with an eight-point gap between Bromley and Salford, underlining how close a finish it would be for the first time since the 2021-22 season which saw the top six split by seven points.

Andy Woodman’s Ravens would also be promoted as champions by just two points from MK Dons with Notts County a further point back in the final automatic promotion spot in third, albeit three points ahead of fourth-placed Cambridge who would meet the seventh-placed club in their play-off semi-final.

Swindon and Salford meanwhile would finish fifth and sixth and meet in the other play-off semi-final under this scenario.

Position	Team	Points
1	Bromley	87
2	MK Dons	85
3	Notts County	84
4	Cambridge	81
5	Swindon	80
6	Salford	79