Who will beat the drop?

With the relegation battle hotting up as we enter the final seven rounds of this season, several teams look set to be battling the drop till circa 4:50pm on Sunday 13th May.

Just eight points split everyone from Bournemouth downwards to Stoke in 19th with West Brom a seven further points back.

With seven rounds plus some rescheduled matches remaining for this season, whose time is nearly up?

Here, we look at each team’s survival prospects and their run ins so who will beat the drop, with special guest Luke Beaumont giving his thoughts on Huddersfield’s survival hopes?

*n order from 20th to 10th in Premier League table. 

 

West Bromwich Albion – 20 points

West Bromwich Albion really need a unbeaten run and other results to go their way, or their Premier League time will be up. 

Date	Opposition	Venue
31st March	Burnley	H
7th April	Swansea City	H
15th April	Manchester United	A
22nd April	Liverpool	H
28th April	Newcastle United	A
4/5/6/7th May	Tottenham Hotspur	H
13th May	Crystal Palace	A

The upcoming matches against Burnley and Swansea are probably must win if are to get momentum to start a late fightback. 

Newcastle and Crystal Palace trips could very well become key, if the Baggies can get at least a draw from either Manchester United, Liverpool or Tottenham Hotspur.

That would however require Crystal Palace and Stoke City both tripping up, which is a huge ask given the current points gap.

As a result, I believe that this will be too big an ask but this is West Brom who know how to somehow snatch safety from claws of relegation.

 

Stoke City – 27 points

Date	Opposition	Venue
1st April	Arsenal	A
7th April	Tottenham Hotspur	H
16th April	West Ham	A
22nd April	Burnley	H
28th April	Liverpool	A
4/5/6/7th May	Crystal Palace	H
13th May	Swansea City	A

Stoke currently sit three points from safety so really need to get points on board as soon as possibly can.

I definitely can’t see them getting anything against Arsenal or Tottenham, so they must take six points against West Ham or Burnley if want a chance at survival.

If other teams slip up then Stoke must try and take maximum points from final two games, if want to remain in Premier League.

In summary, this is a tough challenge but if the Potters can make four of last five matches count, then they could just about stay up.

 

Southampton – 28 points

With Mark Hughes now in charge, Southampton really need to win at least three games if are to avoid relegation to Championship. 

Date	Opposition	Venue
31st March	West Ham United	A
8th April	Arsenal	A
14th April	Chelsea	H
19th April	Leicester	A
28th April	Bournemouth	H
4/5/6/7th May	Everton	A
13th May	Manchester City	H
TBA	Swansea	A

West Ham, Leicester and Swansea trips should yield at least four points but it won’t be enough because at least 36 points could secure safety.

The Saints therefore need to beat Bournemouth at home, and try to get some points against two of Arsenal, Chelsea or Manchester City.

Realistically, the Saints can only afford to not take any points from two matches, otherwise they could be in peril come the very last whistle of season and need results elsewhere to go their way.

 

West Ham United – 30 points

After a heated final match before their three week break, West Ham must put the events of that day behind them as they fight the drop.

Date	Opposition	Venue
31st March	Southampton	H
8th April	Chelsea	A
16th April	Stoke City	H
22nd April	Arsenal	A
27/28th April	Manchester City	H
4/5/6/7th May	Leicester City	A
13th May	Everton	H
TBA	Manchester United	H

West Ham have to realistically win their non ‘Big Six’ games if are going to stay up.

I don’t see them getting anything from games against Chelsea and either Manchester clubs.

They however might get lucky if Arsenal are distracted by Europa League semi finals but that is unlikely, given the number of strong ineligible for Europe players that Wenger has available domestically.

Two wins and a couple of draws might be enough but with fans angry at broken promises, I am struggling to see how they could stay up marring a strong bunch of wins.

 

Crystal Palace – 30 points

Date	Opposition	Venue
31st March	Liverpool	H
7th April	Bournemouth	A
14th April	Brighton & Hove Albion	H
21st April	Watford	A
28th April	Leicester City	H
4/5/6/7th May	Stoke City	A
13th May	West Bromwich Albion	H

Crystal Palace look best placed to survive with their run in if can deliver.

Liverpool for first game post international break will be tough but after that, they can really go for it.

The home games (Liverpool aside) are all winnable so a minimum of four points would be a solid return from those games.

Bournemouth and Watford away are winnable but the big test will be a trip to Stoke in penultimate weekend.

Depending on how results go for either side, this could very well be a six pointer but I think Palace will be nearly safe by then.

From these seven games, Roy Hodgson and his men should aim for eight points at minimum but no reason why they couldn’t get 11 or more points if can go on a winning run.

 

Huddersfield Town – 31 points

Date	Opposition	Venue
31st March	Newcastle United	A
7th April	Brighton & Hove Albion	A
14th April	Watford	H
28th April	Everton	H
4/5/6/7th May	Manchester City	A
13th May	Arsenal	H
TBA	Chelsea	A

This has been Huddersfield’s first ever appearance in the Premier League, and they will be delighted with where they are currently sat in the league standings.

David Wagner worked miracles getting the club into the top flight, and the fact that they could be remaining there is astonishing.

The West Yorkshire side currently has 31 points from 31 games, and that is a fantastic return. Averaging a point a game in the Premier League is usually enough to see you avoid relegation.

They have a tough run in though, having to face Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal. However, there are also some winnable games thrown in.

Huddersfield’s next three games are Newcastle, Brighton and Watford, teams they have already beaten in the league this season, so they will be confident about picking up points.

If the Terriers can average a point a game, and reach the 38 points mark, I think they will stay up.

By Luke Beaumont 

 

Swansea City – 31 points

Needing nine points to be sure of survival, Swansea definitely can stay up as long as can deliver the performances and points.

Date	Opposition	Venue
31st March	Manchester United	A
7th April	West Bromwich Albion	A
14th April	Everton	H
21st/22nd April	Manchester City	A
28th April	Chelsea	H
4/5/6/7th May	Bournemouth	A
13th May	Stoke City	H
TBA	Southampton	H

Both trips to Manchester will be tough to get any points from but if can take at least seven points from rest whilst those around them struggle, they should just about still avoid the drop.

Overall, the Swans could be swimming into a …. season in Premier League but if not, the rearranged game versus Southampton will be a six pointer.

 

Newcastle United – 32 points

Date	Opposition	Venue
31st March	Huddersfield Town	H
7th April	Leicester City	A
15th April	Arsenal	H
23rd April	Everton	A
28th April	West Bromwich Albion	H
4/5/6/7th May	Watford	A
13th May	Chelsea	H
TBA	Tottenham Hotspur	A

Newcastle definitely have an optimistic run in so their season could really go either north or south.

Huddersfield and West Brom at home should be an easy six points but they will need to take at least four points from away trips to Leicester, Everton and Watford.

I can see Arsenal, Tottenham and Chelsea having too much for the Magpies when they meet, making the other games key to Newcastle’s survival hopes.

Should they achieve the combined ten points that I am predicting then another top flight season should await them.

 

Brighton & Hove Albion – 34 points

Date	Opposition	Venue
31st March	Leicester City	H
7th April	Huddersfield Town	H
14th April	Crystal Palace	A
17th April	Tottenham	H
28th April	Burnley	A
4/5/6/7th May	Manchester United	H
13th May	Liverpool	A
TBA	Manchester City	A

Needing just six points from the magical 40 point barrier, I reckon that Brighton will have safety secured by May.

If can make home advantage count against Leicester and Huddersfield, they could easily get it done by mid April or at Turf Moor later that month.

Even if are still fighting for survival in May, the in form Glenn Murray should easily help keep the Seagulls up no matter what. 

 

Watford – 36 points

Date	Opposition	Venue
31st March	Bournemouth	H
7th April	Burnley	H
14th April	Huddersfield	A
21st April	Crystal Palace	H
30th April	Tottenham	A
4/5/6/7th May	Newcastle	H
13th May	Manchester United	A

Watford are currently just four points from safety and if they can get at least five points from next four games, they should definitely be safe.

If not then they should do it against Newcastle in their final home game of the season.

Tottenham and Manchester United trips will more than likely wield zero points but that shouldn’t matter in grand scheme of things.

The Hornets definitely will be in the Premier League next season with no excuses looking at that run in.

 

Bournemouth – 36 points

Eddie Howe has turned around Bournemouth’s season after a challenging start, to leave them four points from safety entering the run in.

Date	Opposition	Venue
31st March	Watford	A
7th April	Crystal Palace	H
14th April	Liverpool	A
18th April	Manchester United	H
28th April	Southampton	A
4/5/6/7th May	Swansea City	H
13th May	Burnley	A

Liverpool and Manchester United will be tough opposition but I reckon that the Cherries could secure safety with before then, if see off Watford and Crystal Palace.

Even if don’t then they should have enough in them to stay up, regardless of if lose last three games or not as long as don’t shift lot of goals at back.

Bournemouth haven’t failed to score in last 11 league matches but have just one clean sheet in that period.

If can keep that goal run going but improve their defence then it will be a fourth straight Premier League season for Eddie Howe’s men.

 

Relegation prediction

Given the variety of run in difficulty for each team, I reckon that West Brom and Stoke will sadly be the first two to go down.

As for the final spot, Huddersfield have to be in potential danger but West Ham are in disarray, so can see them just failing to stay up after a tense final day. 

Relegation prediction: West Bromwich Albion, Stoke City and West Ham United