Who Will Clinch Promotion to Premier League?

As the Sky Bet Championship enters the final month of the regular season, seven teams are in contention for promotion to the Premier League as we take a look at their run-ins.

Coventry are set to be promoted as champions as long as they avoid a spectacular collapse in the run-in with a 17-point lead over seventh-placed Wrexham, who are only outside of the last play-off spot on goal difference.

In fact, Middlesbrough, Ipswich, Millwall, Hull, Southampton and Wrexham are separated by only eight points heading into the business end of the campaign, so here is a look at how the run-in is shaping up for all seven clubs whilst Derby could be a thorn in some sides as a play-off outsider.

 

Coventry (80 points)

Team	Venue
Derby	H
Hull	A
Sheffield Wednesday	H
Blackburn	A
Portsmouth	H
Wrexham	H
Watford	A

With a 11-point lead on the play-off spots, Coventry would need a spectacular collapse to miss out on automatic promotion, but Derby and Hull won’t be easy games given that the latter two are in the play-off hunt so a return of four points would be a decent gathering.

Once those two games are out of the way, I would expect them to comfortably beat Sheffield Wednesday, Blackburn and Portsmouth, which could secure them the title too with two games to spare.

The Wrexham game is a sticky point for me because it is their last home game so is likely to be a celebratory match ahead of the title presentation if they’re champions by then, so you would expect them to go for the win but Wrexham would have something important left to play for so a draw seems a fair call at present.

Watford meanwhile might not be the most consistent but they do often prove difficult to play against when at home so another draw would be a safe guess, especially if both got nothing to play for.

15 points therefore has to be a fair aim for a team who are pretty much going up barring the most shocking collapse in form imaginable.

Prediction – 15 points

 

Middlesbrough (71 points)

Team	Venue
Millwall	H
Swansea	A
Portsmouth	H
Ipswich	A
Sheffield Wednesday	H
Watford	H
Wrexham	A

With their two-point lead over Millwall heading into their Good Friday meeting and Ipswich not in action that day, Middlesbrough have a great chance to pull a five-point gap and put promotion in their own hands if can sort out their recent home dip.

Their last three home games though are all winnable so nine points has to be the aim across their remaining home fixtures, but I do think that they’re capable of 10 or 12 points if avoid defeat against Millwall, of which a draw feels a fair guess at present given what’s at stake.

Middlesbrough’s last two away matches though are very tough so a win away at Swansea is imperative, which coupled with 10 hypothetical points at home would allow them room to draw at either Ipswich or Wrexham and lose at the other given that there is a surprise banana skin lurking in the run-in.

14 points therefore has to be a realistic target but win against Millwall and avoid any slip-ups elsewhere and automatic promotion would be theirs to lose.

Prediction – 14 points

 

Ipswich (69 points)

Team	Venue
Birmingham City	H
Norwich	A
Portsmouth	A
Middlesbrough	H
Charlton	A
West Brom	A
Southampton	A
QPR	H

Although Ipswich come into this run-in with a game in hand away to Portsmouth, that clash isn’t guaranteed to be easy given that Portsmouth are fighting for survival, so there is the potential for a banana skin yet they beforehand have two tricky games against Birmingham and local rivals, Norwich.

I however do think that they have the quality to win at Portsmouth but their records against Birmingham and Norwich isn’t exactly the best, so seven points have to be the best realistic aim from those three games ahead of the home game against Middlesbrough.

Simply put it this way, Ipswich surely will be favourites for the second automatic promotion spot if they beat Boro at home, but I can see that at the minute being a draw so eight points ahead of three consecutive away trips would be decent but stir some nerves amongst fans.

Looking ahead to those final four matches, I can see Ipswich beating Charlton and QPR but West Brom and Southampton have relegation and play-offs to fight for, so a loss and win apiece feels likely in those games which would give them nine points from that period.

17 points therefore does look like a fair aim but there will surely be some curveballs to come for Ipswich.

Prediction – 17 points

 

Millwall (69 points)

Team	Venue
Middlesbrough	A
Norwich	H
West Brom	A
QPR	H
Stoke City	A
Leicester	A
Oxford United	H

With Ipswich holding a game in hand, Millwall’s trip to Middlesbrough on Good Friday already oozes do-or-die vibes because if they lose there, I can’t see them getting automatic promotion unless Boro and Ipswich both hit the same ruts and those two play each other on 19 April.

They however should be able to grind out nine points from their last three home matches but trips to West Brom and Leicester feel like banana skins – given that those two are fighting for survival, so four points from those two games would be a decent return alongside a win at Stoke.

16 points therefore has to be a fair aim but win at Boro and automatic promotion has to be a serious prospect, otherwise they need to get those predicted points and hope that Middlesbrough and Ipswich implode in their run-ins.

Prediction – 16 points

 

Hull (66 points)

Team	Venue
Oxford United	A
Coventry	H
Sheffield United	A
Birmingham City	H
Leicester	A
Charlton	A
Norwich	H

Hull begin their run-in at a revitalised Oxford United who have lost just one of their last five matches but a play-off spot is in their own hands, of which I can see them getting seven points from their final three games.

As for their next four matches, I can see them beating Oxford Utd with the right attitude but I can see them possibly picking up four points across the Coventry, Sheffield Utd and Birmingham games, as a slip-up feels likely in one of those three fixtures at least.

13 points therefore feels like a fair prediction in regards to Hull’s promotion push but the play-offs surely are beckoning for the Tigers.

Prediction – 13 points

 

Southampton (63 points)

Team	Venue
Wrexham	A
Derby	H
Swansea	A
Bristol City	H
Blackburn	H
Ipswich	H
Preston	A

Although their immediate priority is a home tie against Arsenal in the FA Cup Quarter-Finals, Southampton’s main priority however need to be on league matters because Wrexham and Derby are two tough games and especially the latter which could open the door for Derby to get right into the play-off mix.

A return of 2-4 points from those two games therefore would a decent haul because they should be able to beat Swansea, Bristol City and Blackburn, which would put them on 13 points ahead of their last two games although I do see them beating Preston on the final day.

The rearranged home clash against Ipswich though falls in the final midweek between the Blackburn and Preston games and I can see that being potentially decisive as to whether Southampton reach the play-offs or not, but they should be in a good position if can drop around three points at maximum.

Fans also shouldn’t rule out the possibility of Southampton reaching the FA Cup semi-finals which is scheduled for the weekend they host Blackburn, which could see that game brought forward to in-between the Derby and Swansea matches given the lack of midweek space left.

Prediction – 16 points

 

Wrexham (63 points)

Team	Venue
West Brom	A
Southampton	H
Birmingham City	A
Stoke City	H
Oxford United	A
Coventry	A
Middlesbrough	H

Knowing that they simply must better Southampton to at least secure a play-off spot whilst automatic promotion is unlikely barring a miracle, Wrexham realistically need to focus on gathering as many points as they can and see what happens elsewhere.

Looking at their fixtures and particularly their upcoming five games, I think that they need to ideally target around 8-9 points ahead of the trip to Coventry, which will look tough on paper but the Sky Blues could be promoted by then which could help Wrexham if they need a win.

That final-day showdown at home against Middlesbrough though will be season defining as to whether they reach the play-offs or not, but I do think that they are capable of 14 points overall across their remaining games if beat West Brom, Birmingham, Stoke, Oxford United and pick up draws elsewhere.

Prediction – 14 points

 

Down to the Wire

If we hypothetically applied the above points predictions then Coventry would be promoted as champions, whilst Ipswich would scrape the second automatic promotion spot by one point from Middlesbrough and Millwall – condemning the latter two to the play-offs.

Hull and Southampton would take the last two play-off spots ahead of Wrexham by just two points but this is the Championship, so fans should always expect the unexpected to flare up in unexpected moments especially given how close the promotion race is.

Position	Team	Points
1	Coventry	95
2	Ipswich	86
3	Middlesbrough	85
4	Millwall	85
5	Hull	79
6	Southampton	79
7	Wrexham	77