Who Will Win the Scrap For Premier League Promotion?

With the Championship braced for a tense run-in with promotion to the Premier League at stake, here is a look at the run-ins of the four contenders.

Leeds are currently sat top on goal difference from Leicester with Ipswich a further point behind, although Southampton aren’t out of contention with two games in hand despite their nine-point deficit.

All four teams though will face different challenges across their individual run-in against teams either fighting for survival, a play-off spot or just playing for pride and early momentum to take into next season.

I have taken an individual look at the run-ins of all four teams and dissected how many points they could look to aim for at home and on the road, plus made predictions on how many points they could achieve across their run-in.

 

Leeds United (82 points)

Team	Venue
Watford	A
Hull	H
Coventry	A
Sunderland	H
Blackburn	H
Middlesbrough	A
QPR	A
Southampton	H

Sat top on goal difference and with a solid run-in, Leeds certainly should believe that automatic promotion i a serious prospect at first time of asking.

Their remaining home games in particular look strong because if they can get wins over Sunderland and Blackburn plus at least one draw against Hull or Southampton, Daniel Farke’s Whites should start dreaming of a top-flight return.

On the road, their trip to Watford is winnable but if they can grind out draws or one win and draw from visits to Coventry and Middlesbrough, I can see them going up automatically despite possibly losing at relegation-battling QPR given their weak away record in London.

14 points therefore has to be the aim given that they have the least number of games left to play compared to their rivals.

Prediction: 14 points

 

Leicester City (82 points)

Team	Venue
Bristol City	A
Norwich	H
Birmingham City	H
Millwall	A
Plymouth	A
West Brom	H
Southampton	H
Preston	A
Blackburn	H

With just one win in their last five league matches, Leicester have been sucked right back into the scrap for survival after having looked set to sprint away to promotion – but crucially have one game in hand on Leeds.

Their run-in therefore will surely be fraught with difficult opposition but I do expect them to win away at Bristol City and Plymouth, whilst at least a draw at either Millwall or Preston would be a fair return with seven points from their last four away trips surely the minimal aim.

Enzo Maresca’s Foxes though will need to be at their best at home because I can see their only guaranteed home wins coming against Birmingham and Blackburn, so a win and draw against two of Norwich, West Brom and Southampton has to be their target given how tight the battle is.

Should they indeed achieve seven points on the road and can find 10 points at home, I fancy them to stand a solid chance of going back up with a haul of 17 points from their last nine matches.

Prediction: 17 points

 

Ipswich (81 points)

Team	Venue
Blackburn	A
Southampton	H
Norwich	A
Watford	H
Middlesbrough	H
Hull	A
Coventry	A
Huddersfield	H

Sat one point off the automatic promotion spots in their first season back in the Championship after a four-season absence, Ipswich certainly proven to be unlikely promotion challengers and there is no reason as to why they can’t believe in achieving an unlikely consecutive promotion.

Focusing upon their home gams, I can see them definitely winning their matches against Watford, Middlesbrough and Huddersfield, but if they beat or snatch a draw against Southampton then that result could become crucial although nine points is achievable at minimum.

Their remaining away games though will be tougher because although they should beat Blackburn despite their poor record at Ewood Park, they will need to be at their best and avoid defensive dips if want to win at Norwich, Hull and Coventry – who are all in a proper play-off scrap.

I however do feel that they will lose one of those three latter away matches but if can claim draws in their two other games, they should scrape together five points which might just be enough depending upon results elsewhere.

14 points though is no bad return from what is a slightly tougher run-in than their rivals.

Prediction: 14 points

 

Southampton (73 points)

Team	Venue
Middlesbrough	H
Ipswich	A
Blackburn	A
Coventry	H
Watford	H
Preston	H
Cardiff	A
Leicester	A
Stoke	H
Leeds	A

Sat nine points adrift of the automatic promotion spots albeit with two games in hand – including a blockbuster trip to Leicester, Southampton certainly have it all to do if they’re to escape the lottery of the play-offs and still claim promotion.

Easter weekend though is season-defining against an in-form Middlesbrough at home then visit to Ipswich because anything less than two wins will surely condemn them to the play-offs, unless results elsewhere go in their favour and they can take advantage themselves.

Once the trip to Ipswich is done, Southampton really need to target away wins at Blackburn and Cardiff because it will be tough to get three points at Leicester and Leeds, so a return of six points at minimum on the road is imperative.

As for their run-in at home, Southampton should target victories over Boro, Watford and Stoke but if they can get four points at minimum against Coventry and Preston, they could put themselves in a decent position for a late push.

Their remaining away games however could be their Achilles heel so a overall haul of 18 points surely has to be their aim in those final ten matches.

Prediction: 18 points

 

Immediate Bounce Back

If applied the above points predictions to the current standings, Leicester and Leeds would achieve an immediate bounce back into the Premier League, with the Foxes promoted as champions.

Ipswich though would miss out by a single point and join Southampton in the Championship promotion play-offs, as Russell Martin’s Saints would fall five points short of automatic promotion.

Position	Team	Points
1	Leicester	99
2	Leeds	96
3	Ipswich	95
4	Southampton	91