With rumours beginning to swirl around the Formula One paddock about who is driving for who in 2022, we take a look at the current state of the driver market.
Only ten seats have been filled at present of which only three teams have confirmed their full driver line-ups for next season, leaving ten vacant positions to be filled in the coming months including two seats at Mercedes.
Ferrari, Haas and McLaren are the only teams to have finalised their 2022 line-ups already with Alpine, Aston Martin, Red Bull and Williams all having filled one of their two race seats.
Now here is a look at how the current driver market is looking as things stand ahead of a big six months of decision making for seven teams.
| Team | Driver | Driver |
| Alfa Romeo | TBA | TBA |
| AlphaTauri | TBA | TBA |
| Alpine | Fernando Alonso | TBA |
| Aston Martin | TBA | Sebastian Vettel |
| Ferrari | Charles Leclerc | Carlos Sainz |
| Haas | Nikita Mazepin | Mick Schumacher |
| McLaren | Lando Norris | Daniel Ricciardo |
| Mercedes | TBA | TBA |
| Red Bull | Max Verstappen | TBA |
| Williams | Nicholas Latifi | TBA |
Below we will take an in-depth look at how each team is shaping up and predict who could end up where next season.
Alfa Romeo
Much of Alfa’s lineup plans will probably depend on what Kimi Raikkonen decides to do about his future because although he will be 42 come late October, the Flying Finn is still showing that he has the speed to challenge in midfield and seems to like the stability of life as a F1 driver.
It is therefore difficult at present to see him retiring unless he decides to retire on his own terms which does look a while away given his quiet but committed passion to F1.
Antonio Giovinazzi meanwhile hasn’t done much in three full seasons with Alfa Romeo except score points here and there, so I sadly do imagine that he will make way for Robert Shwartzman who is highly rated by Ferrari and currently challenging for the F2 title.
Should Shwartzman however repeat his mid-season rut of 2020 and misses out on a top three finish in F2, I can see Alfa promoting Callum Ilott from his Test Driver role because he definitely deserves a proper chance in F1, especially after getting snubbed for this season by both Alfa and Haas.
Shwartzman though will have had an extra year of experience in F2 and has looked consistent this season so far, so I am going to go for Raikkonen and Shwartzman for Alfa Romeo next season with Ilott moving to Haas if Mazepin has to do military duty for Russia.
Prediction: Kimi Raikkonen and Robert Shwartzman
AlphaTauri/Red Bull
Although both seats are currently vacant at AlphaTauri, I think this will be the easiest contract renewal throughout the grid because Red Bull won’t want to repeat their historical mistakes of promoting youngsters too soon, which should mean a second season at AlphaTauri for Yuki Tsunoda.
Gasly meanwhile is seriously impressing with his performances this season but with Sergio Perez in strong form at Red Bull, it is hard to see the Frenchman getting a second promotion next season given how disastrous his first promotion was in 2019.
I therefore do expect Helmut Marko to sign off on maintaining the status quo at both teams and especially with Gasly having limited options elsewhere if he was to leave.
Prediction: AlphaTauri – Pierre Gasly/Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull – Sergio Perez/Max Verstappen
Alpine
With Alonso already confirmed for 2022 and Esteban Ocon in excellent form, it is hard to not see the Frenchman’s contract getting renewed because a French driver racing for a French team is a good image to have.
Alpine though do have a headache because their promotion record of young drivers is awful yet they could have Guanyu Zhou and Oscar Piastri both chasing that second seat, but only if they can continue their strong start to the 2021 F2 season and push for the title.
Should Zhou and Piastri however finish in the top two of F2 this season then it will be very difficult to justify not putting at least one of those two youngsters in the team next season, yet it wouldn’t do their image any good if dropped Ocon in favour of youth when we could argue that Alonso should make way.
Either way, this would be a difficult scenario for Alpine to find themselves in but a good one at the same time in terms of talent, whilst the late finish to F2 this season adds a further headache if hoping to make their decision by late November at the latest.
If I was Team Principal of Alpine, I definitely would struggle with this selection because Alonso has history with the team on top of a two-year contract and Ocon is a key driver for promotional activities in the French market, yet Zhou and Piastri both don’t deserve to spend 2022 on the sidelines given their talent.
I therefore would boldly axe Alonso and keep Ocon for continuity and promote Zhou because he has worked hard for his chance and would provide extra F1 publicity in China, unless Piastri wins the F2 title to follow up his F3 crown of 2020 then it would be hard to not justify him over Zhou.
Prediction: Esteban Ocon/Guanyu Zhou
Aston Martin
With Lawrence Stroll as Team Owner, this is definitely an easy decision because it is very difficult to see him axing his son – Lance unless a quality driver suddenly becomes available which is unlikely.
Prediction: Lance Stroll/Sebastian Vettel
Mercedes
With both drivers out of contract at end of 2021 and Junior Driver, George Russell also available at the same time, Mercedes definitely do have a lot of soul searching to do moving forward as F1 prepares for a new era next season.
Given that Hamilton’s current one-year contract was largely down to the Coronavirus pandemic, I definitely can see him sticking around to chase that eighth title if he doesn’t win it this season and definitely would provide instant continuity for the team.
Should the seven-time champion however decide to depart and Valtteri Bottas continues his poor form, Toto Wolff has a conundrum on his hands as to whether retain Bottas for continuity sake or totally start afresh by promoting Russell to the main team and move Nyck De Vries or Stoffel Vandoorne over from their Formula E team.
In the event that Wolff opted for the latter and started afresh with Russell alongside one of the Silver Arrows’ Formula E drivers, he would have a tricky decision on his hands of youth vs experience in De Vries and Vandoorne.
De Vries might have youth on his side which would help in long-term planning and stability, yet if he struggled to adapt quickly and provide Russell with support up front then that could be the constructors crown gone by mid-season.
Vandoorne on the other hand has F1 experience behind him from his days at McLaren and is closely involved with Mercedes’ F1 operations, so would be an easier fit as a no.2 driver after often playing second fiddle to Alonso at McLaren.
I however can see Hamilton staying at Mercedes but Russell making the step up as part of a wider changing of the guard project for Mercedes, in which Russell can learn from Hamilton before taking over as team leader once his compatriot departs.
Prediction: Lewis Hamilton/George Russell
Williams
Although Latifi is confirmed for 2022, the identity of Williams’ second driver though depends on Mercedes’ plans for Russell because if he is promoted, they will face a tough choice of whether to take Bottas back given his experience or look elsewhere.
Should Dorilton Capital decide to explore alternative options, perhaps they could take one of Zhou or Piastri on loan depending on Alpine’s plans because although Williams have a close relationship with Mercedes, they clearly have done a strong job with Russell so might as well give another youngster a chance
Bottas though would bring experience with him and knows the team well from his time with them between 2010-2016, which would suit them and their plans to progress further up the grid in search of their former glory days.
Should Mercedes wish for Russell to stay at Williams for another season though, I can see the status quo being retained across both teams but I definitely can see a change being made with Russell going to Mercedes.
As for Williams, they face a tricky choice but with 2022 seeing a change of regulations I feel that experience might just win out over youth in this instant and Bottas might benefit from a reset back at his old team after two tough seasons.
Prediction: Nicholas Latifi/Valtteri Bottas
Now with predictions made, here is how the F1 grid would look if applied my predictions to the vacant slots.
| Team | Driver | Driver |
| Alfa Romeo | Kimi Raikkonen | Robert Shwartzman |
| AlphaTauri | Pierre Gasly | Yuki Tsunoda |
| Alpine | Esteban Ocon | Guanyu Zhou |
| Aston Martin | Lance Stroll | Sebastian Vettel |
| Ferrari | Charles Leclerc | Carlos Sainz |
| Haas | Nikita Mazepin | Mick Schumacher |
| McLaren | Lando Norris | Daniel Ricciardo |
| Mercedes | Lewis Hamilton | George Russell |
| Red Bull | Max Verstappen | Sergio Perez |
| Williams | Nicholas Latifi | Valtteri Bottas |
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