Euro 2020: Group A – Italy vs Wales

Italy welcome Wales to Stadio Olimpico, Rome in a blockbuster Group A clash as both teams look to top their group. 

Victory will see Italy advance as group winners, whereas Wales know that only a win would see them top the group and set up a potentially easier path in the knockout stages.

 

Team News

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With qualification already assured, Roberto Mancini is set to rotate his Italy squad with Giorgio Chiellini, Manuel Locatelli and Ciro Immobile amongst those set to be rested, with Gaetano Castrovilli, Andrea Belotti and Giacomo Raspadori amongst fringe players expected to potentially start the match.

Wales also have no fresh injury concerns to report but aren’t yet assured of a top two finish so manager, Rob Page might opt for a largely unchanged lineup although Kieffer Moore and Gareth Bale could be rested here.

 

Stat Attack

• This is Italy’s first meeting against Wales at a major tournament.
• Italy are unbeaten in seven of nine previous meetings against Wales across all competitions (W7, L2).
• Wales have won just one of six previous trips to Italy in all competitions (W1, L5).
• All three of Manuel Locatelli’s three goals for Italy have come in 2021, including his brace in Wednesday’s win over Switzerland.
• Wales have conceded three goals in two of their last three ‘away’ matches in all competitions.

 

Prediction

With qualification already wrapped up, Italy can afford to rest key players but there is a fine balancing act to be found because too many changes could ruin their 10 match unbeaten run of clean sheets, yet giving their important players a break will benefit them in the knockout stages.

Wales are however in a catch-22 situation because a point would see them through if they too rested players, yet they can go and top the group to give themselves a potentially easier knockout path so I can see just a couple of changes to this team here.

It will therefore be interesting to see whether either if not both teams make wholesale changes or not and how it impacts upon the game tactically, although Italy should have enough quality to find the win if can continue their momentum.

Prediction: Italy 1-0 Wales

Result: Italy 1-0 Wales