As the Premier League kicks off their run-in of the 2020-21 season this weekend, we take a look at the relegation fight as seven teams look to survive the drop.
Crystal Palace and Wolves aren’t entirely safe but with the pair sitting 11 and nine points clear of the drop at present, they definitely should be safe which sets up a seven-way scrap involving; Southampton, Burnley, Brighton, Newcastle, Fulham, West Brom and Sheffield United.
We have therefore decided to focus our attention on those seven teams, with in-depth looks at the individual run-ins with full analysis on how each run-in could play out for all seven clubs.
Southampton (33 points)
| Opposition | Venue |
| Burnley | Home |
| West Brom | Away |
| Tottenham | Away |
| Leicester | Home |
| Liverpool | Away |
| Fulham | Home |
| Leeds | Home |
| West Ham | Away |
| Crystal Palace | Home* |
*Southampton’s home match against Crystal Palace is to be rearranged due to the Saints’ FA Cup semi-final appearance, with date currently unconfirmed at time of writing.
Following a huge slump with just four points from their last 12 league games, Southampton now sit just seven points clear of relegation so are definitely right in this relegation fight, despite their points haul suggesting that they should be safe.
Ralph Hasenhuttl’s Saints however did show promise of improvement in their FA Cup Quarter-Final victory at Bournemouth two weeks ago and given their favourable start to the run-in, victories in their first two games should see them towards safety
I say that because I just can’t see them winning against Tottenham, Leicester and Liverpool on current form although Jurgen Klopp’s Reds have seen their home form plummet, so that game could be interesting if the reigning champions are still winless at home and Southampton rebuild momentum.
Their last four matches therefore are going to be key if are dragged further into the survival battle because Fulham will become a six-pointer, whilst wins over Leeds and Palace would be crucial ahead of their tough looking final day trip to West Ham.
On that note, I think that should they get victories over Burnley and West Brom, they can relax a bit and look to get wins over Fulham and Leeds whereas I think they can get a draw against Palace because they likely won’t beat Spurs, Leicester, Liverpool or West Ham.
Prediction = 13 points
Burnley (33 points)
| Opposition | Venue |
| Southampton | Away |
| Newcastle | Home |
| Manchester United | Away |
| Wolves | Away |
| West Ham | Home |
| Fulham | Away |
| Leeds | Home |
| Liverpool | Home |
| Sheffield United | Away |
Like Southampton, Burnley aren’t totally safe but given the Clarets’ solid quality, they should get safety if can deliver some strong results during their last nine matches.
Focusing on their away matches, Burnley should target wins at Fulham and Sheffield United, whilst at least one point surely has to be the minimum aim at Southampton and Wolves as I can’t see them winning away to Man Utd barring a shock.
Now looking at their home games, I would write off Liverpool but Burnley should target at least four points from their other three games at Turf Moor, although defeating Newcastle is a must if they’re to boost their survival bid.
Should Sean Dyche’s Clarets be able to manage seven points on the road, I think one win and a draw at home would be enough to guarantee another season in the top flight.
Prediction = 11 points
Brighton & Hove Albion (32 points)
| Opposition | Venue |
| Manchester United | Away |
| Everton | Home |
| Chelsea | Away |
| Sheffield United | Away |
| Leeds | Home |
| Wolves | Away |
| West Ham | Home |
| Manchester City | Home |
| Arsenal | Away |
With a strong upturn in fortunes since mid-January, Brighton can enter this run-in with confidence.
I however am concerned by their tough looking run of away games in coming weeks because Sheffield United and Wolves represent their best hopes of victory, unless able to nick one or two draws away to Man Utd, Chelsea or Arsenal.
Switching focus on Brighton’s remaining home games and it looks just as tough but if they can defeat Leeds and find two draws against Everton, West Ham or Man City, I think they should be able to get five points which would give them a decent enough shot at survival.
Now looking at their run-in overall, I think that they really need to realistically find around 10-12 points to give their survival bid a real chance of success, although just seven points could somehow be enough depending on results elsewhere.
Prediction: 11 points
Newcastle United (28 points)
| Opposition | Venue |
| Tottenham | Home |
| Burnley | Away |
| West Ham | Home |
| Liverpool | Away |
| Arsenal | Home |
| Leicester | Away |
| Manchester City | Home |
| Sheffield United | Home |
| Fulham | Away |
With just three points from their last six games, Newcastle have to step up now if they’re to avoid relegation for the first time since 2016.
Their remaining home matches however are a real worry because on current performances, I really can only see them getting one victory which would come in mid-May against Sheffield United barring a shock in their preceding matches at St James’ Park.
Looking at their four away games and I am filled with the same concern because I don’t see them winning at Liverpool nor Leicester, so a win at Burnley is a must if the Magpies are to set up a final day survival decider at Fulham.
The bad news though for Newcastle is that Fulham’s Craven Cottage has often been their bogey ground in the Premier League, although they did win at Craven Cottage on the final day in 2018-19 season so can take heart from that despite different circumstances back then.
Newcastle fans therefore should be alarmed because I think the Magpies will only manage six points at best, yet they probably will need more if want to stay up.
Prediction = 6 points
Fulham (26 points)
| Opposition | Venue |
| Aston Villa | Away |
| Wolves | Home |
| Arsenal | Away |
| Chelsea | Away |
| Burnley | Home |
| Southampton | Away |
| Manchester United | Away |
| Newcastle | Home |
With Newcastle’s run-in looking awful, Fulham surely know that survival is theirs to lose given that they are set for a tricky start to their run-in against Aston Villa and Wolves, yet both opponents have little to play for so Fulham will fancy two wins if can continue their improved away form.
I however definitely don’t expect them to even get even one point away to Arsenal, Chelsea and Man Utd which means that their clashes against Burnley and Southampton will be crucial because they could avoid a final day showdown if can get at least four points from those two games.
If it comes down to a final day decider then their loss on the last day of 2018-19 season will be fresh in their minds, as Newcastle won 4-0 on that occasion despite the Cottagers holding a strong home record over the Magpies.
On that note, I think that if Fulham can garner seven points from their next seven games then they could well be on the verge of safety if not safe, otherwise I think they might falter due to their weak record in Premier League relegations scraps that go to the last few weeks of a season.
Prediction = 7 points
West Bromwich Albion (18 points)
| Opposition | Venue |
| Chelsea | Away |
| Southampton | Home |
| Leicester | Away |
| Aston Villa | Away |
| Wolves | Home |
| Arsenal | Away |
| Liverpool | Home |
| West Ham | Home |
| Leeds | Away |
West Brom definitely are in for a tough start to their run-in with three away trips in their next five games, which makes their home clashes against Southampton and Wolves crucial because I can’t see them staying up unless they take six points from those two games alone.
Looking ahead to their final four fixtures and it looks the same picture because I can see a definite defeat at Arsenal and no points from their last two home games if Liverpool and West Ham are still scrapping for the top four which is where they need at least one win to keep survival within sight.
Leeds however can be inconsistent at times so if West Brom were to beat Southampton and Wolves plus pick up surprise results elsewhere, they could have a faint shot at survival on the final day if Leeds are having an off-day when they meet.
I therefore realistically don’t see more than five points at best if were to take one win and two draws from likely weaker opposition, otherwise they are definitely going down despite Sam Allardyce’s proven record in Premier League survival.
Prediction = 5 points
Sheffield United (14 points)
| Opposition | Venue |
| Leeds | Away |
| Arsenal | Home |
| Wolves | Away |
| Brighton | Home |
| Tottenham | Away |
| Crystal Palace | Home |
| Everton | Away |
| Newcastle | Away |
| Burnley | Home |
Currently 14 points off safety and without Chris Wilder following his exit on top of several injuries to key players, Sheffield United need the mother of all runs if they’re to pull off the great escape.
Focusing on their four home matches, Sheffield Utd can definitely write off the Arsenal clash but they must beat Brighton, Crystal Palace and Burnley to give themselves a shot when combined with away results in this run-in.
Now switching attention to the Blades’ away games and they simply have to beat Leeds to get their fightback off to the perfect start, otherwise relegation is certain because I don’t see them defeating Wolves, Tottenham, Everton and Newcastle unless can get a win at Leeds to give them renewed belief.
Although the pessimistic in me would love to see Sheffield Utd pull off the great escape, I genuinely don’t see that happening and a minimum of four points would be a decent return from this tough run-in for a team low on confidence and looking destined for the drop.
Prediction = 4 points
How Will Final Standings Look?
If we add the projected points predictions to current standings, there would actually be no change to the standings although Fulham would be relegated by one point if they were to lose a final day survival decider against Newcastle.
| Position | Team | Points |
| 14 | Southampton | 46 |
| 15 | Burnley | 44 |
| 16 | Brighton | 43 |
| 17 | Newcastle | 34 |
| 18 | Fulham | 33 |
| 19 | West Brom | 23 |
| 20 | Sheffield United | 18 |
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