Bayern Munich welcome Chelsea to the Allianz Arena in the second leg of their Champions League Round of 16 tie.
Bayern have one foot in the last eight with a 3-0 lead from the first leg, knowing that victory, draw or small defeat here would see them progress because Chelsea must score at least three goals to keep their European dreams alive.
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Benjamin Pavard is ruled out for Bayern with an ankle injury suffered in training last week.
Kingsley Coman is a doubt as he continues to struggle with a muscle injury suffered in recent weeks.
Chelsea will be without Cesar Azpilicueta and Christian Pulisic after the pair suffered hamstring injuries in last Saturday’s FA Cup Final defeat, although Willian is expected to be available after an ankle injury kept him out of the Blues’ last two matches.
Pedro (shoulder), Billy Gilmour and Marco van Ginkel (both knee) are all ruled out.
- Bayern have won three of their five previous meetings against Chelsea in all UEFA competitions (W3, L2).
- Chelsea are winless in two away Champions League trips against Bayern excluding penalty shootouts (D1, L1).
- Bayern’s 3-0 first leg win at Stamford Bridge in February marked the first time in which both teams failed to score in a competitive meeting.
- Chelsea have kept just one clean sheet in their last 11 games across all UEFA competitions, which came away to Ajax in a 0-1 win in this season’s Group Stage.
- Bayern have lost just three of their last ten Champions League home games against British opposition (W6, D1, L3).
With a three goal deficit to overturn and a poor away record post lockdown of just four wins in all competitions, this is a huge ask for Chelsea to even take this tie to extra time let alone penalties or even score four goals by any means possible.
Bayern meanwhile are unbeaten in all competitions since returning from lockdown despite conceding in six of 11 matches, which highlights just how strong they’re and I can’t see them losing this even if rest some key players ahead of coming games.
Chelsea therefore in my opinion have to start well like they did against Arsenal last weekend but tighten up defensively, otherwise I can just see one result coming here.
Prediction: Bayern Munich 2-1 Chelsea
Result: Bayern Munich 4-1 Chelsea (Bayern Munich win 7-1 on aggregate)