As the run-in of 2022-23 Premier League season commences, here is a look at how Arsenal and Manchester City shape up in the race for the title.
With an eight-point gap currently separating Arsenal and Man City, this title run-in promises to be intense as Mikel Arteta’s Gunners look for a first league title in 19 years yet City are experienced title winners in recent years and know all about title comebacks.
Either way, there is a lot at stake across the final nine weeks of the season as we take a look at how the run-in individually is shaping up for both Arsenal and Man City, starting with the league leaders.
Arsenal (69 points)
| Opposition | Venue |
| Leeds United | H |
| Liverpool | A |
| West Ham | A |
| Southampton | H |
| Manchester City | A |
| Chelsea | H |
| Newcastle | A |
| Brighton | H |
| Nottingham Forest | A |
| Wolves | H |
Currently holding an eight-point lead with no games in hand on City, Arsenal certainly are in pole position to claim a first Premier League title since 2004 if they can avoid blowing their decent-sized points lead.
April though does feel quite season-defining for Arteta’s Gunners because they’re facing three teams battling relegation, whilst Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea won’t be easy by any stretch.
Now if we break down April into home and away groups then I do fancy Arsenal to at least claim six points at home if can beat Leeds and Southampton, whilst a home win over Chelsea would be fantastic heading into their final four games but a draw would be a decent outcome too.
Arsenal though realistically should target at least four points from their away trips to Liverpool, West Ham and Man City, but if they can win two of those three matches on the road then it would be a strong return.
Quite simply, I do think Arsenal are capable of gaining at least 11 points across April, ahead of two tricky clashes against Newcastle and Brighton which will be crucial because both the Magpies and Seagulls can spring surprises on their day, so four points minimum will be vital from those two games.
Forest and Wolves in their concluding two matches though should be a fairly easy six points but heading to Forest won’t be an easy task, as the likes of Chelsea and Man City have already discovered in recent months but I just can’t see Arsenal losing there unlike in FA Cup in recent seasons.
I therefore do feel like Arsenal should target at least 21 points across the run-in if can limit defeat to just ideally at Man City, given their poor form against Pep Guardiola’s Citizens overall in recent seasons.
Points prediction: 21 points
Manchester City (61 points)
| Opposition | Venue |
| Liverpool | H |
| Southampton | A |
| Leicester | H |
| Arsenal | H |
| Fulham | A |
| West Ham | H |
| Leeds United | H |
| Everton | A |
| Chelsea | H |
| Brighton | A* |
| Brentford | A |
*At time of writing, the date of Man City’s rearranged trip to Brighton is unknown but is expected to be play in the penultimate matchweek.
Although City currently have two games in hand on Arsenal across the run-in due to their FA Cup involvement causing postponements of matches against West Ham and Brighton, those two games will only yield a maximum of six points yet they currently sit eight points behind the Gunners.
A strong start is therefore imperative because if they slip up against Liverpool and Arsenal beat Leeds, City will simply have to avoid defeat and hope Arsenal slip up in their run-in if they want to defend their title.
If focus solely on City’s five league games in April, I do feel like they’re going to need to avoid defeat at home, yet all three games are possible slip-ups due to Liverpool’s and Arsenal’s quality whilst Leicester fall in-between Champions League Quarter-Final legs against Bayern Munich.
A five point return at minimum therefore feels more realistic at home in April with a win over Arsenal looking vital aided by their strong form against Arteta’s Gunners, but City should claim maximum points away at Southampton and Fulham, so 11 points heading into May feel like a decent estimate.
Looking at their last six games, West Ham, Leeds and Chelsea should all be beatable at home with maximum points, but away visits to Everton, Brighton and Brentford do look tricky if all three teams still have something to play for at that stage of the run-in.
City though should beat Everton realistically given their fierce form against Everton’s manager – Sean Dyche, which will be a real positive because Brighton away won’t be easy if the Seagulls can maintain their form – meaning that a draw might well be salvagable.
Brentford though beat City at the Etihad in November and if they can sniff an Europa League spot heading into the final day, I fancy them and their home fans to make life difficult for Guardiola’s Citizens but Man City’s quality might just be enough.
City also have the experience of fierce title scraps even when hope seems lost unlike Arsenal, which should motivate them to achieve a strong return of 16 points from their final six games of the season to produce an overall points haul of 27 points in the run-in.
Their home clash against Arsenal on 26 April though will define City’s run-in because if they lose then it’s game over, otherwise I expect the title fight to go down to the wire.
Points prediction: 27 points
Grandstand Finish
If we hypothetically add the predicted points total to Arsenal and Man City’s current collection of points, we could well be set for a grandstand finish with the Gunners prevailing by just two points to end almost two decades of disappointment.
Their clash at the Etihad Stadium though is going to be absolutely crucial on top of fixtures against Brighton which won’t be easy, given that Roberto De Zerbi’s Seagulls are chasing a top-four finish so could well have a pivotal say in the destination of this title.
Either way, there is sure to be plenty of twists and turns in this epic run-in.
| Position | Team | Points |
| 1 | Arsenal | 90 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 88 |
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